Monte Carlo Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Optimization of Groundwater Monitoring Programmes

Abstract

Abstract Apart from the initial capital cost for the installation of the monitoring network, the cost for analysing the water quality parameters can outweigh the cost for sampling (personnel, logistics, and instrumentation), data processing, storage, and reporting. These costs can be reduced if it is possible to identify the water quality parameters that have a high risk of impacting the groundwater regime and modify the water quality parameters to be monitored, and the frequency of monitoring according to a risk of probable impact. A quantitative risk assessment, based on the Monte Carlo analysis of random sampling, was developed. The results of the Monte Carlo water quality risk assessment were used to design a new groundwater monitoring programme for an industrial waste facility. The use of the risk assessment is not limited to industrial waste facility sites. It can also be applied to other industries that have the potential to impact or have impacted the groundwater regime if historical time-series monitoring data is available.