Analysis of land use/cover changes using the concepts of ecosystem services for the ecological security assessment of Lavasanat watershed (Tehran, Iran)

Author:

moarrab Yasser,Amiri Mohammad Javad,Jadidi Mahnaz

Abstract

Abstract Recent years have seen growing interest in the use of the concepts of ecosystem services in ecological security assessments. This study analyzed the temporal-spatial changes of land use/cover in Lavasanat watershed, Tehran, Iran, between the years 2000 and 2040 under different land-use change scenarios, and assessed the consequent change in ecological security in terms of ecosystem services (water yield) under different climate scenarios. First, the LULC map of the watershed for the 20 year period between 2000 and 2020 was generated. Then, the area’s LULC changes from 2020 to 2040 were predicted based on the assumption of the continuation of current conditions, which was named Scenario S1. Next, three other scenarios named S2, S3, and S4, representing the pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic management of the situation were defined based on S1. Three climate scenarios named B1, N and M were also defined for use in the assessments. For ecological security assessments, temporal and spatial changes of water yield services for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020 were simulated based on the area’s climate data and LULC changes. The results were then used to estimate the water yield of the entire watershed and its residential areas by 2040 in the four defined land-use/cover scenarios (S1, S2, S3, and S4) and three climate scenarios (B1, N, and M). The results showed a 1.92 times increase in the water yield of the watershed’s residential areas from 2000 to 2020. Among the scenarios defined for Lavasanat watershed, the worst scenario (with the highest water yield) was S2N with a water yield of 37639293.581m3 in the entire watershed and 35091082.311m3 in the residential areas, and the best scenario (with the lowest water yield) was S4M with a water yield of 8329365.079m3 in the entire watershed and 7353006.022m3 in the residential areas. The results of all of the four land-use/cover scenarios under all three climate scenarios showed an increase in water yield, the expansion of residential areas, and the loss of ecologically valuable lands in the watershed by 2040.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3