A large earthquake could occur in southeastern Sumatra or Jawa， Indonesia within the next several years

Abstract

Abstract In this article, we focused on the region including southeastern Sumatra and Jawa,Indonisia, conducted a joint analysis of the b-value and apparent stress to investigate the stress in the crustal rock. We also examine the correlation between the variations in the rate of Earth’s rotation and the occurrence of earthquakes there by means of P-value. The results are outlined below. In the area 100km south of Jakarta, the b value decreased ~ 48% within ten years from 2009 to 2018 in and around the area. An obvious upward trend in the apparent stress started at the beginning of 2002 and ended in July 2019. From August 2019 until July 2022, the apparent stress decreased, reflecting that a stage of sub-instability or critical state could have occurred. It‘s shown that lower P-values concentrate mainly around Bengkulu, about 370km west of Jakarta, indicating a significant correlation between the occurrence of earthquakes and the Earth’s rotation there. Based on the above results, we can conclude that there could occur a strong earthquake of Mw ≥8.0 in Jawa or southeastern Sumatra, Indonesia within the future several years. This is maybe important to reduce the seismic damage there.