Different responses of Japanese Encephalitis to weather variable among eight climate subtypes in Gansu China, 2005-2019

Abstract

Abstract This study evaluated epidemic temporal aspects of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) and investigated the weather threshold of JE response across eight climate subtypes between 2005 and 2019 in Gansu. Data were from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) of Gansu. Three epidemic temporal indices (frequency index (α), duration index (β), and intensity index (γ)) were adopted for the comparison of epidemic features among different climate subtypes. In addition, the local indicators of spatial association technique (LISA) and category and regression tree model (CART) were used to detect the response threshold of weather variables in hot-spot areas across climate subtypes. Among eight climate subtypes in Gansu, a hot-spot(high-high cluster) of α, β, and γ were detected in the climate subtype of subtropical winter dry (Cwa), temperate oceanic continental (Cwb), and continental winter dry (Dwa, and the Dwb). CART analysis showed that the average temperature at a 1-month lag for JE may be the strongest predictor of JE response in Cwa. However, the maximum temperature at a 1-month lag for JE may be the strongest predictor of JE response in Cwb, Dwa, and Dwb.The climate subtypes of temperate arid (BWk) and subpolar winter dry (Dwc) in Gansu may be at the epicenter of an emerging pandemic. It is critical to increase preventive and control efforts in these areas. Cwa, Cwb, Dwa, and Dwb are the high-risk JE epidemic areas, where JE temperature at the lag of 1 month is the predominant variable of JE response.