Decoupling of economic growth from CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Abstract

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) integration strategy, crucial in China’s “double carbon” era, targets carbon emissions reduction alongside sustainable economic growth. However, existing research on carbon-economic coupling faces challenges in resolution and source classification. Our study employs high-resolution CO₂ and GDP data by sub-industry (10*10 km) and Tapio decoupling model to analyze BTH’s dynamics (2000-2020). Results show a shift from rising to declining CO₂ emissions during the 11th Five-Year Plan, followed by a rebound in the late 13th Five-Year Plan, driven by energy sector reductions. Beijing reached its carbon peak, while Tianjin and Hebei plateaued post-2012, with Hebei rebounding later. Industries like industrial production, construction, fuel processing, and chemicals are major CO₂ contributors, growing imbalanced with economic levels. CO₂-GDP coupling shifted from implicit decoupling to coupling (2000-2010) and weakly decoupled by 2015, except in areas like the Bohai Rim. By 2018, implicit coupling reemerged. Coupling fluctuates notably, with weaker performance near Beijing, influenced by the building trades. This research guides regional carbon reduction and sustainable economic development in BTH.