Affiliation:
1. University of Cincinnati
2. Sciences Po Lille
Abstract
AbstractIn this paper, we aim to identify the main factors that explain the occurrence and intensity of armed conflicts in a specific region, the Middle East and North Africa. We extend the linear Bayesian Model Averaging procedure to allow for the outcome, conflict intensity, to be measured on an ordered scale. Our research led us to expand the traditional dichotomous outcome, war versus peace, into a conflict intensity measure dissociating the state of peace from four different levels of violence. We provide strong evidence that not only demographical, institutional and socio-economic but also, environmental factors must be considered when analyzing conflict intensity. Those factors being innately intertwined, we advise policy makers not to rely on a particular theory to assess policy decisions. By paying special attention to neighboring states’ characteristics, our results reveal that political economy factors, historical legacy, climate and access to natural resources are key in identifying conflict severity. Finally, we show that model averaging predictions for ordered categorical outcomes improve upon the existing out-of-sample conflict prediction techniques.JEL Codes: O11, O15, C11, C52
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
Reference105 articles.
1. Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2017). ‘The economic impact of colonialism”. In S. Michalopoulos et, & E. Papaioannou (Eds.), The long economic and political shadow of history (pp. 81–87). Vox eBook: Vol. I. A global view
2. Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail. The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Power. London: Profile Books
3. Why is Africa Poor;Acemoglu D;Economic History of Developing Regions,2010
4. Inequality, Growth and Development. Democratization or Repression ?;Acemoglu D;European Economic Review,2000
5. “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation;Acemoglu D;American Economic Review,2001