2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

2040 greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the EU Green Deal

Published:2023-08-21 Issue: Volume: Page:
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Author:

Rodrigues Renato¹^ORCID,Pietzcker Robert²,Sitarz Joanna²^ORCID,Merfort Anne¹,Hasse Robin¹^ORCID,Hoppe Johanna¹,Pehl Michaja³^ORCID,Ershad Ahmad Murtaza¹,Baumstark Lavinia¹,Luderer Gunnar²

Affiliation:

1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

3. Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract

AbstractThe European Green Deal aims to guide the European Union towards achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by implementing a comprehensive set of policy initiatives and legislation. While emission reduction targets and policies up to 2030 are mostly implemented, it is of high priority for EU legislation to spell out the further transformation to climate neutrality by defining interim policy targets for 2040. Here we explore, based on an integrated energy-economy-climate model with high sector detail, pathways to achieve climate neutrality in the EU under uncertainty about key energy system developments. Results suggest that emission reductions of 87–91% by 2040 relative to 1990 are consistent with a cost-efficient distribution of mitigation efforts over time, substantially exceeding the 78%-level implied by a linear interpolation between the 2030 and 2050 goals. Additionally, we identify a 5-7-fold upscaling of electricity generation from wind and solar, a 44–50% share of electricity in final energy supply and an upscaling of Carbon Capture and Storage to 120–330 Mt CO2/yr as crucial transformation milestones for 2040.

Publisher

Research Square Platform LLC

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