Inter-Provincial Carbon Emission Allocation and Uncertainty in China under the Carbon Peak Target

Abstract

Abstract Based on China’s 2030 peak carbon reduction target, allocation schemes under the equity principle, efficiency principle, and a comprehensive balance of both are explored using the input-output model, Zero Sum Game-Data Envelopment Analysis(ZSG-DEA)model, and entropy value method, respectively. Abatement costs of different allocation schemes are compared, and allocations of multiple schemes under different principles and development paths are studied separately, as are uncertainties of multiple allocation options under different principles and development paths. The study shows that abatement costs under the comprehensive scheme are more acceptable to multiple provinces, the results of multi-scheme allocation under different paths are more extreme than the uncertainty of allocation principles, and technological progress under multiple development paths can better facilitate carbon abatement. Carbon allocation policies should balance efficiency and equity, but also consider the impact of various uncertainties. This study provides a methodological reference for inter-provincial carbon emission rights allocation and uncertainty in China.