The Viral Warfare – Uncovering the Connection between Conspiracy Theories on COVID and the War in Ukraine

Abstract

Abstract During times of crisis, conspiracy theories tend to proliferate – especially in polarized political environments. Existing research has shown that both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have spawned a surge in conspiracy theories. However, there is a notable gap in academic research concerning the interconnection between these two sets of conspiracy theories. Our preregistered representative survey study conducted in Hungary (N = 1000) investigates the interconnections between conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, and the moderating role of trust, conspiracy mentality, political preference, and socio-demographic variables in this relationship. Hungary, a nation marked by exceptionally high levels of tribal polarization, and plagued by pervasive disinformation presents an ideal case for examining the polarizing nature of conspiracy theories. Contrary to the prevailing notion that a generalized mistrust links unrelated conspiracy theories, the research finds that specific, logically unrelated conspiracy theories can be horizontally connected to each other. We found that conspiracy theories about COVID-19 and vaccines were strongly related to conspiracy theories about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This relationship persists independently of party preference, and neither mistrust in media nor Conspiracy Mentality can explain this relationship. Surprisingly, trust in domestic media positively predicted war-related conspiracy beliefs. These results, even if correlational, raise the possibility that conspiracy theories about COVID-19 (which preceded the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022) could serve as a "gateway theory," leading to the acceptance of war-related conspiracies. Our findings, in line with some previous research on “gateway theories” and the monological nature of conspiracy theories, suggest that communication interventions should address specific narratives rather than solely focusing on the “root cause” such as mistrust in institutions – which not always go hand in hand with conspiracy theorizing. Furthermore, building trust in official sources may worsen the problem in contexts where mainstream media spreads conspiracy theories. Thus, a nuanced, context-sensitive communication approach is essential in combating conspiracy theories effectively.