Climatic Zoning of Yerba Mate and Climate Change Projections: A CMIP6 Approach

Abstract

Abstract Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis) has several nutritional and pharmaceutical properties and is traditionally used in South America in the preparation of various types of beverages. The pharmaceutical industry has a large number of patents for products related to the properties of this plant. This study aims to analyze the climatic zoning of the yerba mate relative to climate change using CMIP6 model projections. Understanding the potential effects of climate change on yerba mate production and distribution is essential due to its economic and cultural importance. The CMIP6 model allows the analysis of future scenarios by identifying favorable and unfavorable areas for cultivation. The results provide subsidies for adaptation and mitigation measures, helping in strategic planning and decision-making related to sustainable yerba mate production. This study aimed to identify favorable areas for Ilex paraguariensis cultivation for the main producing countries, that is, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, under the CMIP 6 climate change scenarios. The study was conducted in producing regions of the North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South of Brazil and the countries Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay. The ideal air temperature for crop development ranges from 21 to 25°C and the ideal precipitation is > 1200 mm per cycle. Daily air temperature and precipitation data for the current scenario were collected using the WorldClim version 2 platform. Projections of future climate variables were obtained from the WorldClim 2.1 platform using the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, with a 30-second spatial resolution. Four shared socio-economic pathway scenarios were considered for four different periods: 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2081, and 2081–2100. Data from a geographic information system were used to carry out spatial interpolation throughout the Brazilian territory, using the Kriging method. The results showed that most of the studied territory is classified as unfavorable for yerba mate cultivation, with only 12.25% (1.5 million km2) considered favorable. The highest concentration of favorable areas is found in the South of Brazil and Uruguay, which are currently the main producers of yerba mate. Most future scenarios of climate change showed a high impact on the climate due to an increase in the mean air temperature and a reduction in precipitation, leading to possible negative impacts on yerba mate cultivation, with a total reduction of favorable areas in producing regions.