Potential current and future distribution for Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Colombia: important disease vectors

Abstract

Abstract Invasive mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti (African) and Aedes albopictus (Asian), are global vectors of dengue, Zika and chikungunya and are present in Colombia. For this reason, the objective was to know the potential geographic distribution of the A. aegypti and A. albopictus vectors under current and future conditions in Colombia. For this, a data set was formed with the records for each species in its native area and in Colombia, which, together with layers of bioclimatic variables, were implemented in ecological niche models (ENM). To estimate in current conditions, the Wallace platform was used, while for future estimations, under three climate change scenarios (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in two time periods (2041–2060 and 2081–2100), the MaxEnt software was used. Additionally, the niche overlap was plotted and the ideal area and the population at risk in Colombia were quantified. It is suggested that both species share ideal areas in the central and western zones of the country, occupying over 70% of extension, where A. aegypti would reach maximum altitudes of 3,300 m and A. albopictus up to 3,000 m. In the future for both species it is estimated that, with higher emissions, the potential distribution could decrease, but they could invade areas with altitudes above 3,000 m (colder). It is concluded that, currently, A. aegypti and A. albopictus could have similar geographic distribution in Colombia and that, in the following years, climate change could lead to latitudinal and altitudinal variations in the distribution areas of these vectors.