Flood modelling shows increased impacts from flooding in southern Thailand as a result of climate change

Abstract

AbstractFlooding is one of the most commonly occurring natural disasters across the world. Its occurrence is predicted to become more frequent with climate change and associated rainfall increases. This study used a bespoke software Flowroute-i, developed by Ambiental, UK specialists in flood risk assessment and modelling, utlising meteorological and spatial data to produce flood maps. The study was conducted in 6 catchments in southern Thailand modelling flood depth and extent associated with high rainfall events with return periods of 20, 50 and 100 years. Both a present-day scenario and a future scenario (RCP 6.0) with projections to 2100 were modelled. The models suggest that there could be an increase of up to 37.5% in flood extent, particularly in the middle of the catchment. This was particularly evident on the eastern side of the Thai peninsula, Nakhon Si Thammarat, in part as a result of the large flat coastal plain adjacent to steep basin geomorphology. These results should allow appropriate agencies to initiate flood mitigation measures, as the impacts of present-day flood events in the studied areas have been noted to be particularly devastating to life, livelihoods, and infrastructure and this looks set to worsen in a warming world.