Contribution of alcohol use to the global burden of cirrhosis and liver cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2044

Abstract

Abstract Background Identifying the temporal trends of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use in both the past and the future can formulated the control strategies. Methods Data on cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use from 1990 to 2019, including mortality and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates were collected from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In order to analysis the temporal trends, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied. Result The deaths and DALY of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use increased year by years, but the ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate declined or remained stable from 1990 to 2019 in most regions of the world. The burden of cirrhosis attributable to alcohol increased in low-middle social-development index (SDI) regions, while the burden of liver cancer increased in high SDI region. Deaths and DALYs are mainly distributed in people aged 40 + years, but there is a growing trend in people aged under 40 years. New deaths from cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to alcohol use are predicted to increase in the next 25 years, but the ASDR of cirrhosis in males will increase slightly. Conclusions Although the age-standardized rate of cirrhosis and liver cancer due to alcohol use have declined, the absolute burden increased and will continue to increase. Therefore, steps against alcohol use should be further strengthened and improved through effective national policies.