The Value of PET/CT Radiomics for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Patients with Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is associated with poor prognosis even without distant metastases, necessitating in-depth characterization of primary tumours for survival prediction. We assessed the feasibility of using FDG-PET/CT radiomics to predict overall survival (OS) in PDAC. This retrospective study included PDAC patients without distant metastasis who underwent FDG-PET/CT for initial staging. Primary tumours were segmented from FDG-PET/CT images, extracting 222 radiomics features. A radiomics-based risk score (Rad-score) was developed using Cox proportional hazards regression with LASSO to predict OS. The prognostic performance of the Rad-score was compared with a clinical model (demographics, disease stage, laboratory results) using Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and bootstrapping. 140 patients were included, with a mortality rate was 72.9% during follow-up (total population, 19.5 ± 19.2 months; survivors, 34.4 ± 28.8 months). Eleven radiomics features were significant for survival prediction. The Rad-score predicted OS with a C-index of 0.681 [95% CI, 0.632–0.731]. A model integrating clinical parameters and Rad-score outperformed the clinical-only model in predicting OS (C-index 0.736 [0.727–0.812] vs. 0.667 [0.648–0.750]; C-index difference 0.069 [0.028–0.117]; P < 0.001). These findings suggest that incorporating FDG-PET/CT radiomics into preexisting prognotic stratification paradiagm may enhance survival prediction in PDAC, warranting large-scale studies to confirm its applicability in clinical practice.