The Determinants of CO2 Emissions in the Context of ESG Models at World Level

Abstract

Abstract We estimate the determinants of CO2 Emissions-COE in the context of Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG model at world level. We use data of the World Bank for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We found that the level of COE is positively associated, among others to “Methane Emissions”, “Research and Development Expenditures”, and negatively associated among others to “Renewable Energy Consumption” and “Mean Drought Index”. Furthermore, we have applied a cluster analysis with the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method and we find the presence of four cluster. Finally, we apply eight machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of the future value of COE and we find that the Artificial Neural Network-ANN algorithm is the best predictor. The ANN predicts a reduction in the level of COE equal to 5.69% on average for the analysed countries. JEL Classification: D7, D70, D72, D73, D78