The Distribution of Fishes of Economic Importance Under Changing Climate in Lamu, Kenya.

Abstract

Fisheries in Kenya is key in local and national economy. This study supports climate governance by showing the past and future distribution of fishes of economic importance and state of fish habitats under changing climate to guide in Marine Spatial Planning and sustainable Blue economy. Analysis of climate extremes was compared with the trends of fish catch and the reason behind dwindling catches deduced. KMD and KeFS climate and fish catch data was used in the analysis of historical extremes and trends. The future distribution of fishes of economic importance was assessed using species distribution modelling with climate change scenario data from worldclim.com. Findings showed that catch values have been increasing since 2015 and 0ff-shore species catches decreasing. By the year 2050, several parts of Lamu East and few places in Lamu West are expected to experience inundation.Mangroves are expected to be distributed over most parts of Lamu shoreline while several parts are expected to be suitable for sea grass. Most parts of Lamu East are expected to support crabs, lobsters and green algae while several places in Lamu West are expected to be suitable. Several parts of Lamu East are expected to be suitable for Tuna fish, sailfish and snappers while in Lamu West only a few parts will be suitable. The study recommends conservation of mangroves and sea grass, better fishing gears and coolants for fishers and continued surveillance in Lamu east waters which is more productive than the West to cope with the changing climate.