Trends and Projection of Burden on Lung Cancer and Risk Factors in China from 1990 to 2060

Abstract

Abstract Background Lung cancer (LC) is currently the number one malignancy death rate disease in China, and its disease burden is serious. The study aims to analyze trends of LC and its risk factor attributable disease in China from 1990 to 2019 and project the next 40 years. Methods The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to analyze the trend of LC and its risk factor attributable incidence, death rate and DALYs rate in China from 1990 to 2019, which were collected in the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD2019). In addition, based on the data from 1990 to 2019, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) was established for death rate, incidence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs rate) attributed to LC and its risk factors, and the model parameters RMSE, MAE and MAPE were used to evaluate the model. Results From 1990 to 2019, the incidence, death rate and DALYs rate of LC showed a rapid rising trend. Among them, the DALYs rate, incidence and death rate of LC patients > 60 years old showed an increasing trend, and the biggest increase was in the age group 85 + years old, which increased by 87.6%, 119.0% and 89.8%, respectively. The top four risk factors in terms of both DALYs rate and death rate in 2019 were smoking, environmental particulate pollution, occupational risk and second-hand smoke. It is found that the death rate and DALYs rate of LC are increasing each year from 2020 to 2060 and the DALYs rate of LC will reach 3349.374/100,000, and the death rate will reach 1919936/100000 by 2060. In addition, the top four rank of DALYs rate and death rate of LC risk factors in China in 2060 are smoking, environmental particulate pollution, high fasting plasma glucose(HFPG) and occupational risk, in which HFPG will increase the most. Conclusions The LC burden still increased from 1990 to 2019 in China. And the LC burden that could be attributed to HFPG will continue to increase in the next 40 years and will be the third important factor by 2060. Targeted interventions are warranted to facilitate the prevention of LG and improvement of health-related quality of patients of LC.