Digital Inclusive Finance, Consumption Structure Upgrading and Carbon Emissions

Abstract

Abstract The "14th Five-Year Plan" is not only an important stage for enhancing the inclusiveness of finance in China but also a critical window for the "peak carbon emissions" action. Against the backdrop of rapid development in the digital economy, China urgently needs to explore a high-quality development model that integrates digital finance with low-carbon and green initiatives. This paper employs panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning from 2014 to 2021 to investigate, for the first time, the mechanism and spatial spillover effects of digital inclusive finance on carbon emissions from the perspective of consumption structure upgrading. The research findings indicate that digital inclusive finance significantly curbs carbon emissions, and the upgrading of consumption structure serves as the mechanism through which digital inclusive finance reduces carbon emissions. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the inhibitory effect of digital inclusive finance on carbon emissions is more pronounced in the central and western regions compared to the eastern region, and the mediating effect of consumption structure upgrading varies across different regions. Furthermore, a positive spatial spillover effect is observed between digital inclusive finance and carbon emissions. This research provides new insights into promoting the carbon emission reduction effects of digital finance from the perspective of consumption structure upgrading, strengthening the synergy between digital finance and consumption structure from a spatial correlation perspective, and ultimately achieving low-carbon and high-quality development.