Simulation and prediction of the geographical distribution of five Caragana species in the north temperate zone
Author:
Jiang Xiuchen1, Wu Linxuan1, Yang Guang1, Gao Yike1, Li He1
Affiliation:
1. Jiangsu Normal University
Abstract
Abstract
Shrub encroachment caused by Caragana does harm to grassland ecosystem. However, based on the current limited understanding of ecosystems and future climatic conditions, the future distribution and dynamics of grassland-shrubland still need further research. In this paper, multivariate statistical analysis was used to identify the dominant environmental causes affecting the geographic range of five species of Caragana in the north temperate zone. Through the MaxEnt model, the current and future geographical distributions of them were simulated by combining 11 environmental variables and 1124 geographical distribution data points selected to analyze their geographical distribution patterns and dynamic changes. The results show the following: (1) The distribution patterns of the five Caragana species in the north temperate zone are predominantly governed by the abiotic factors of temperature and precipitation. (2) Caragana’s suitable habitat has a tendency to extend northward in the future. (3) As greenhouse gas emissions intensify, the habitable zone of C. microphylla and C. korshinskiiwill expand gradually, while the distribution probability of C. stenophylla, C. spinifera and C. pygmaea will shrink significantly in 60%-80% of the area, and the habitable area will fluctuate sharply. (4) The future distribution of suitable habitats for Caragana is concentrated in central Mongolia and around Lake Baikal in Russia. This research could offer a reference for the protection of grassland resources, ensuring sustainable development under the action of shrub encroachment.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
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