Management and climate effects to global changes in crop yield stability

Abstract

Abstract Crop yield stability is key for food security. However, little is known about whether recent technological advances are sufficient to stabilize yields against seasonal climate variability and extremes under climate change. Using a grid yield dataset, we found that from 2001 to 2020, the standard deviation (SD) of yield anomalies for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, increased across 119.2 million hectares (Mha), or 19% of the global harvested area. Management improvement has not kept pace with worsening agro-climatic conditions in 80% of areas with increased SD. However, the coefficient of variation (CV) for yield anomalies increased in only the half of areas with increased SD, or 11% of the global harvested area, due to concurrent increases in average yields. The worsened agro-climatic condition increased yield anomaly SD to be 9.7% greater than what would occur without climate change. Adaptation finance needs to quadruple for stabilizing yields by boosting agricultural R&D.