Association of Socio-economic and Demographic Factors with Incidence of COVID-19 in Nepal

Abstract

Abstract Background The COVID-19 incidence is assumed to have significant impacts on populations with lower socio- economic background across the world. The risk of transmission and spread of COVID-19 disease is higher at cities with higher population density. However, the number of the evidence remains limited in the South Asian region including Nepal. Therefore, the study aimed to understand the COVID-19 disease pattern across Nepal and determine whether the HDI status and population density has an impact on the incidence of disease. Methods The study analyzed geographical distributions of cumulative incidence rate and its association with population density and HDI at district level of Nepal. The spatial autocorrelation between cumulative incidence of COVID-19 and HDI and Population Density were measured using bivariate Moran’s I based on Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA). Results The study analyzed the geographic spread and variance of COVID-19 cases reported from 24 March 2020 till 30 November 2021. The lockdown period was categorized into six stages. The geographical distribution of COVID-19 showed strong spatial autocorrelation with global Moran’s for all six stages. The spatial clusters of COVID-19 incidence were reported in the high population density cities and cities in the southern belt connecting with the Indian border. Conclusion Government’s strict prevention and control measures including social restriction and social distance in higher population density areas were helpful to reduce the spread of COVID-19 transmission.