Scenario Planning in the Health by Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) Methodology

Abstract

Abstract Background: In the health field, future planning and determining the road map are important issues. In this regard, quantitative approaches have often dominated this area of health sector research, and the main focus of researchers has been on creating frameworks and solutions for data management and applying data-driven strategies such as forecasting. in using such methods, it is assumed that past effective forces will continue under the same conditions in the future, as well as new events that They can change past relationships or distort trends, will not occur or have no significant effect. therefore, considering the influential events and investigating the significant effects of these events and their subsequent processes can lead to a better understanding of possible consequences and proper planning for futures in the field of health. Methods: In the trend impact analysis approach, the impact of unprecedented events and their occurrence in the future on trends is considered and reliable results will be produced. the historical available data are used to perform quantitative extrapolation and forecast future values Then, qualitative tools and methods are employed to identify a list of influential events that will affect the trends in the future. Finally, the impact of these events on trends will be identified and applied. Results: As a result of this approach, probable and plausible scenarios can be achieved. Conclusions: The limitations in forecasting the future by using quantitative methods and ignoring the effect of unexpected events can leads to "surprises free" predictions and cause deviations from estimates and plans. Use of innovative methods in the methodology of studies will provide the ground for intelligent planning to face the future, and along with the complexities, uncertainties and changes in social behavior in societies, the use of new scientific methods in the field of health is a necessity.