A general model of treeline form and dynamics

Abstract

Abstract Treeline is a global ecological phenomenon in which tree populations decline, often abruptly, above a specific elevation or latitude. Temperature is thought to be a key determinant of treeline because it affects the rates at which trees establish, grow, produce seeds, and die. As climate change causes temperature increases, treelines have been observed to move in response – but there is considerable variability. In this study we present a general mathematical model that helps to explain both the general patterns observed in treelines and some of the variation. Avoiding system-specific details, our model assumes simply that all life processes are temperature dependent. We incorporate the possibility of positive or negative feedback, in which the presence of trees either increases or decreases the temperature at their location. Our results indicate that this feedback and the relationship between temperature thresholds for growth, seed production, and seedling establishment are the key determinants of tree line form and movement. The model also shows that under many conditions bistability is predicted: treeline can equilibrate at two different elevations under the same conditions, depending on the system’s history. General, flexible models like ours are essential for generating a unifying theory of treeline form and dynamics across multiple ecosystems.