Underground Space-Subsidence and Economic Impact Planning Model in Shanghai: Cause-Effect and Spatiotemporal Regression Analyses for Year 1960-2020

Abstract

Abstract Shanghai is continuously threatened with land subsidence with impact on its built environment e.g. building, land, properties, infrastructure and socio-economic activities. This research studies the mutiregression and spatiotemporal of the identified causing factors; surface load, groundwater-induced, socio-economic growth, underground space development (UUS), climate change and presents the relations of the multifactor in 1960–2020. Data are collected secondarily from open sourced databases. Results determine rhe causing factors with high correlation coefficients > 0.90 R squared values are; UUS development induced-subsidence, tunneling leakage and weak spatial modelling. Economic impact factors include; building price, reconstruction area, arable land, GDP by district and metro tunnel settlement. Spatiotemporal patterns depict the population and land subsidence is growing in spatial autocorrelation with the ratio of 0.89:1.00 indirect-negative economic impact from Urban City Centre, Pudong New Area, Minhang, Baoshan and Songjiang districts. These results can be referred as preparation for further adaptive and resilient scenario spatial planning and modelling.