Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing mechanisms of carbon pressure at the county scale: a case study of central-south Liaoning urban agglomeration, China

Abstract

Abstract To comprehensively assess the balance between carbon emission and carbon sequestration from a spatiotemporal perspective, research on the spatiotemporal characteristics and transition mechanisms of carbon pressure in central-south Liaoning urban agglomeration (CSLUA) at the county level from 2002 to 2017, is conducted through nesting spatiotemporal leaps and quantile regression. Research results suggest that: (1) The overall carbon pressure index (CPI) of districts and counties in CSLUA shows an increasing trend and exhibits a spatial pattern of higher pressure in the west and lower pressure in the east, with severe overload in the central areas of west. (2) The overall spatial distribution of CPI shows significant high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration. The local spatial structure of carbon pressure is relatively stable, showing path dependence and transfer inertia. The central areas of west demonstrate stronger dynamism, while the eastern areas are relatively stable. (3) Most districts and counties in CSLUA are predominantly influenced by the environment technology constraint pattern. Small parts of regions located in the central areas of western cities were influenced by the industry-population-driven and economy-human-urbanization driven patterns. Therefore, the green and low-carbon development needs to jointly consider the regional development characteristics, driving factors, agglomeration types, and transition paths. It is important to design differentiated and coordinated emission reduction strategies based on local conditions while considering spatial correlation, and to establish an inter-regional collaborative governance mechanism. In this manner, co-reduction and co-optimization of carbon emissions can be accomplished through effective pilot implementation strategies and successful regions encouragement.