The assessment and forecasting of carbon emission for Gansu-Qinghai-Shaanxi of China

Abstract

Abstract The assessment of regional low carbon development level can fully reflect the current situation of low carbon development, and the carbon emission forecasting can reveal the future trend of carbon emission and pressure of emission reduction. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out the assessment of low carbon development level and carbon emission forecasting in Gansu, Qinghai and Shaanxi provinces for regional green economy development. Therefore, this research constructs an index system to objectively reflect the low carbon development level of Gansu, Qinghai and Shaanxi provinces, and proposes IE-TOPSIS comprehensive assessment method to assess the regional low carbon development level from 2010 to 2020. It is showed that low carbon development level of the three provinces over the past decade has an increasing trend. Furthermore, this research establishes a GRA-DPC-MAPE combined forecasting model for carbon emission forecasting of Gansu, Qinghai and Shaanxi. GRA-DPC-MAPE model has higher forecast accuracy than individual model SVR, PSO-SVR, ELM and Elman. It is showed that carbon emission of Gansu and Shaanxi provinces will continue to increase from 2021 to 2025 under the current development.