The Impact of Climate Change on Al-Wala basin based on Geomatics, Hydrology and Climate Models

Abstract

Abstract Jordan is greatly affected by climate change, it suffers from fluctuation and decrease in the amounts of the annual precipitation. In this study, the impact of climate change on the Al-Wala basin was analyzed. This basin is located in the south of the capital of Jordan- Amman, over a long period of time, using different types of satellite images. A new approach of Google Earth Engine (GEE) and machine learning code are used to understand the responses of hydrological process to climate change in the study area. In addition, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the hydrological process up to year 2064. Moreover, the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model (MRI-ESM2-0) predicted a variation of the water surface area of the dam in the future years and an important fluctuation of the amount of annual rainfall quantity. The amounts of annual rainfall expected to increase and decrease wobbly for several years in the future. Overall the average annual runoff will increase by 10% compared to the baseline scenario. The minimum temperature also is expected to be higher than their rates throughout the year by 0.09o- 0.11o C; which will increase the evaporation rates with about 0.03%. The analysis of the sensitivity using the SWAT model identified 6 parameters out of 17. The regression coefficient (R2), Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), on monthly basis, were above 0.60 for both of them which indicates satisfactory model results.