The Way Toward Growth: A Time-series Factor Decomposition of Socioeconomic Impulses and Urbanization Trends in a Pre-crisis European Region

Abstract

Abstract The present study investigates long-term urbanization and suburbanization trends - and the consequent impact on economic expansion and social change - in a divided region of Mediterranean Europe (Attica, Greece) by performing a time series (1965–2008) dynamic factor analysis of 14 socioeconomic indicators that reflect different aspects of metropolitan growth. Attica was partitioned in two spatial domains, the ‘Greater Athens’ area (hereafter the ‘core’ district) and the rest of the region (hereafter the ‘ring’ district) with the aim at quantifying the (possible bi-directional) spatio-temporal propagation of socioeconomic impulses to metropolitan growth. The exploratory scheme, integrating Multi-way Factor Analysis (MFA) with Continuous Wavelength Transform (CWT) and rapidity-of-change metrics grounded on complex thinking, delineates latent mechanisms of urban expansion, indicating substantial divergences in the development path of the two districts. While the ‘core’ district experienced population increase and settlement densification, the ‘ring’ district underwent a suburbanization process resulting in a moderate – and slower – concentration of economic functions. Reflecting – at least in part – growth impulses’ propagation from urban to rural areas, the economic interplay between ‘core’ and ‘ring’ areas delineates a complex development path accelerating spatial polarization in central and peripheral locations. Our results definitely highlight the importance of ‘system thinking’ in regional studies and applied economics.