Studying the impact of marital status on diagnosis and survival prediction in pancreatic ductal carcinoma using machine learning methods

Abstract

Abstract Background: Pancreatic cancer is a commonly occurring malignant tumor, with pancreatic ductal carcinoma (PDAC) accounting for approximately 95% of cases. According of its poor prognosis, identifying prognostic factors of pancreatic ductal carcinoma can provide physicians with a reliable theoretical foundation when predicting patient survival. Objective: This study aimed to analyze the impact of marital status on survival outcomes of PDAC patients using propensity score matching and machine learning. The goal was to develop a prognosis prediction model specific to married patients with PDAC. Methods: We extracted a total of 206,968 PDAC patient records from the SEER database. To ensure the baseline characteristics of married and unmarried individuals were balanced, we used a 1:1 propensity matching score. We then conducted Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional-hazards regression to examine the impact of marital status on PDAC survival before and after matching. Additionally, we developed machine learning models to predict 5-year CSS and OS for married patients with PDAC specifically. Results: In total, 24,044 PDAC patients were included in this study. After 1:1 propensity matching, 8,043 married patients and 8,043 unmarried patients were successfully enrolled. Multivariate analysis and the Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated that unmarried individuals had a poorer survival rate than their married counterparts. Among the algorithms tested, the random forest performed the best, with 0.734 5-year CSS and 0.795 5-year OS AUC. Conclusions: This study found a significant association between marital status and survival in PDAC patients. Married patients had the best prognosis, while widowed patients had the worst. The random forest is a reliable model for predicting survival in married patients with PDAC.