Abstract
Accurate prediction of the progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial for disease management. Machine learning techniques have demonstrated success in classifying AD and MCI cases, particularly with the use of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data.This study utilized three years of rs-fMRI data from the ADNI, involving 142 patients with stable MCI (sMCI) and 136 with progressive MCI (pMCI). Graph signal processing was applied to filter rs-fMRI data into low, middle, and high frequency bands. Connectivity-based features were derived from both filtered and unfiltered data, resulting in a comprehensive set of 100 features, including global graph metrics, minimum spanning tree (MST) metrics, triadic interaction metrics, hub tendency metrics, and the number of links. Feature selection was enhanced using particle swarm optimization (PSO) and simulated annealing (SA). A support vector machine (SVM) with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel and a 10-fold cross-validation setup were employed for classification. The proposed approach demonstrated superior performance, achieving optimal accuracy with minimal feature utilization. When PSO selected five features, SVM exhibited accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity rates of 77%, 70%, and 83%, respectively. The identified features were as follows: (Mean of clustering coefficient, Mean of strength)/Radius/(Mean Eccentricity, and Modularity) from low/middle/high frequency bands of graph. The study highlights the efficacy of the proposed framework in identifying individuals at risk of AD development using a parsimonious feature set. This approach holds promise for advancing the precision of MCI to AD progression prediction, aiding in early diagnosis and intervention strategies.