Temporal Evolution of Hurricane Activity: Insights from Decades of Category 1-5 Analysis

Abstract

Abstract This study conducts an in-depth analysis of hurricane trajectories and their variabilities across categories 1 to 5 over several decades. Utilizing HURDAT2 data from 1961 to 2021, the analysis categorizes hurricanes based on the rate of pressure drop within a six-hour interval, revealing distinct patterns in intensification and weakening among different categories. The K-means clustering method synthesized hurricane trajectories into representative paths, illustrating significant variations among decades. The research indicates that Category 1 and 2 hurricanes predominantly originate from tropical depressions, with this trend slightly intensifying in Categories 3 and 4. In contrast, Category 5 displayed variation, revealing an increased frequency in subsequent decades. Moreover, the study analyzes the monthly distribution of hurricanes, finding September as the peak month across categories. The analysis further detects a significant interannual variability with a noticeable intensification in hurricane activity since the 1990s, albeit with some reductions in the early 2010s. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is used to summarize cyclonic activities, with results indicating a decrease from 1970–1995, followed by a consistent surge over the last 15 years. This is aligned with previous research suggesting an approximately 60% increase in ACE since the 1980s. Additionally, an analysis of North Atlantic basin data reflects a progressive increase in the frequency of named storms and hurricanes, particularly from 1991 onwards. In conclusion, the study highlights not only an escalating frequency of hurricanes but also an enhanced variability and unpredictability, which necessitates further research to comprehend the underlying causes and evaluate the potential socio-economic and environmental consequences.