Morocco's Coal to Clean Journey: Optimised Pathways for Decarbonisation and Energy Security

Abstract

Abstract Morocco depends on imported fossil fuels for 90% of its primary energy supply. This makes the country vulnerable to unstable fuel prices and supply cut-offs, and the reliance on fossil fuels releases CO2 emissions which contribute to climate change. Renewable energy expansion, facilitated by Morocco’s high potential for solar and wind capacity, could allow the country to improve its energy security and decarbonise its energy system, in line with its response to the Paris Agreement. This study uses OSeMOSYS (the Open Source Energy Modelling System) to produce six cost-minimised decarbonisation scenarios for Morocco that consider energy independence. The results show that Morocco can achieve most of its decarbonisation targets through bulk wind and solar energy, with a coal phase-out being possible by 2031 at the latest. Natural gas is replaced by biomass and nuclear energy, with some evidence that fuel imports may stay relevant for the foreseeable future. We conclude with policy recommendations. The study can provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Morocco's energy sector to achieve optimal pathways for decarbonisation.