Modelling the future of energy security and decarbonisation in Morocco using OSeMOSYS

Abstract

Abstract Morocco’s energy system is highly dependent on imported fossil fuels, making the country susceptible to fluctuating energy prices and supply issues. Expanding local energy production from renewable sources like wind and solar and reducing imported fuels may help the country to decrease its carbon emissions at the same time as improving its energy security. This study used the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) tool to determine the optimal pathway for Morocco to accomplish these goals at least cost. The modelling results suggest that diversifying the sources of imported natural gas while expanding renewable energy deployment is the best strategy for Morocco to improve its energy security and reduce carbon emissions at lowest cost. The following recommendations will help to achieve this: Legally binding wind power and solar PV expansion plans would ensure that renewable energy capacity increases quickly to meet demand for the period of 2025–2065. These plans could be modelled after the Hawai’i Clean Energy Initiative and should be used in negotiations with multilateral development banks to secure international funding. The legislative framework for feed-in tariffs proposed by Morocco should be amended to include low-voltage power production and introduced within the next two years. Tax-exemptions and low-interest loans should be offered for installations of small solar power systems. A strategy for expanding energy storage capacity should be developed using modelled pathways of the future energy system to assess the storage needs. A regulatory framework for storage providers should be included. A time-based price system for energy consumption should be implemented as soon as possible for electricity customers, starting with medium to large corporate consumers first. Investment in regasification and storage infrastructure will help to prevent overreliance on Spain’s regasification plants. Domestic natural gas exploration in the Tendrara and Gharb regions and a national regulatory system for natural gas production will stabilise its supply. Transparent financing regulations would prevent gas production projects from halting.