Abstract
New Zealand is an importer of fossil fuels, with around 38% of its primary energy derived from these sources. Due to its population and economic growth, New Zealand’s energy demand is projected to increase by 28% between 2020 and 2030, adding more pressure on the energy system. Moreover, the growing concern over the scarcity of resources, volatility in energy prices, and environmental challenges has made energy security one of its primary focuses. The object of this study is to investigate the main determinants of energy security using the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag method based on time series data from 1978 to 2021. The results of this study show that there is a long-run link between energy security and energy intensity (energy efficiency), renewable energy use, fossil fuel consumption, and global oil prices. Real GDP, renewable energy consumption, and energy security improve energy security, while fossil fuel consumption and world oil prices decrease it. A unidirectional causality exists from real GDP, fossil fuel consumption, and renewable energy use to energy security. The causality link between energy intensity and energy security is bidirectional. The simulation results indicate that the impact of global crude oil prices on energy security is significantly lower compared to other variables. It responds greatly to a 5% shock to fossil fuel consumption compared to other variables, followed by economic growth.