Abstract
Mangrove carbon sink is one of important and strategic ways of addressing the problem of carbon emissions, and mangrove carbon sink projects are important carriers to realize the value of mangrove carbon sink. There are various risks involved in the process of developing mangrove carbon sink projects as they will have a significant impact on the successful development of these projects. From the perspective of the supply entities, this article divides the entire life cycle of mangrove carbon sink projects into five stages: (1) decision stage, (2) design stage, (3) construction stage, (4) verification and filing stage, and (5) operation and maintenance stage. With the goal of achieving project success a risk measurement and evaluation model is hereby established, and the impact paths and coefficients of 61 risk factors in the entire life cycle of mangrove carbon sink projects are obtained. The research results indicate that: (a) different life cycle stages exhibit different risk impact paths and coefficients, with the design stage and the operation and maintenance stage bearing the greatest impact of risk in the project; (b) for mangrove carbon sink projects, policy risks, technical risks, and market risks are the three major types of risks that require special attention; (c) about 1/4 of all the risk factors belong to the category of first level risk. These research results can provide a theoretical basis for the effective implementation of risk management plans for mangrove carbon sink projects, so as to ensure greater project effectiveness, promote the development of mangrove carbon sink projects, and ultimately contribute to the realization of the goal of carbon neutrality.