Investing in U.S. forests to mitigate climate change

Abstract

In the recent years several U.S. federal policies have been adopted to support forest-based climate mitigation actions. This study focuses on current federal funds allocated to forest for climate change mitigation activities to assess of much they could deliver in terms of net sequestration under a best-case (optimized) scenario in which the cheapest abatement options are implemented first and if these funds are in line to domestic targets for 2030 and 2050. Multiple investments pathways are tested under two different assumptions on CO₂ fertilization to provide a range of future mitigation projections from forests. Results show that under annual investments in line with current federal funds (around $640 million), the expected carbon flux of U.S. forests is around 770 MtCO₂/yr in 2030 (+ 13% increase from baseline) and 800–880 MtCO₂/yr in 2050 (+ 10% increase from baseline). When CO₂ fertilization is accounted for, the projections of forest carbon sequestration increase by more than 30% with almost 1 GtCO₂ sequestration achieved under federal funds in 2030, increasing the likelihood of meeting both short-term and long-term domestic targets.