City vulnerability to drought-related food supply shock

Abstract

Abstract Global warming is exacerbating agricultural production losses from extreme climate events, with cascading impacts along supply chains that affect cities. However, little is known about cities’ vulnerability to climate-related food supply shocks. Here, using data-driven and network-based approaches, we determine the vulnerability of cities in the United States to domestic drought-related food shocks. Our vulnerability framework integrates key traits—resilience, exposure, and sensitivity to disruption—of a social-ecological system’s response to hazard. We find that vulnerability varies considerably across cities. It tends to be high for western cities because of both high supply chain exposure to water stress and high urban food insecurity. Using the 2012–2013 U.S. drought as a case study, we show that high-vulnerability cities are associated with more extreme food shocks and greater food supply losses than low-vulnerability cities. Our vulnerability framework can help inform climate adaptation interventions for food system security in urban-rural interactions.