Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Pre-earthquake Scenario to Forecasting the Earthquake Magnitude

Abstract

Abstract Although many earthquake precursors have been identified to forecast earthquakes, even in this modern era, forecasting earthquakes in the short term remains a challenging task because of the heterogeneous nature of earthquakes. This study mainly focused on how pre-earthquake scenarios like pre-shocks and atmospheric parameters such as OLR are influenced by the earthquake. The Himalayan belt is one of the most at-risk areas during a continental-continental collision, we decided to focus on earthquakes in that area for our study. For this, we investigated the spatiotemporal analysis of the pre-earthquake scenario to identify the most vulnerable seismic risk zone and to forecast the magnitude of the earthquake. We found there is an energy distribution concentration toward the epicentre of the earthquake. Furthermore, the study also found that abnormal changes in atmospheric parameters could occur several days before an earthquake, which could potentially serve as an early warning system for seismic activity. We observed that on certain days, the OLR spread moved from one location to another in the direction of, or across, the epicentre. This allows us to determine the epicentre of the earthquake with relative ease. This research highlights the importance of monitoring both seismic and atmospheric activity to improve earthquake forecasting and preparedness. As a result of our research, we may be able to identify the most vulnerable seismic zone, locate the epicentre using spatial analysis, and forecast the magnitude of the earthquake using the temporal technique.