Materials demand for electricity in climate mitigation scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Achieving global climate and energy goals will require prodigious increases in non-emitting electricity generation, raising concerns about the scale of materials needed and associated environmental impacts. Here, we estimate power sector demand for materials and related carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2eq) emissions from 2020-2050 across different climate-energy scenarios and compare these figures to material geological reserves and carbon budgets. We find that demand increases but cumulatively does not exceed current geological reserves. However, annual production of materials including neodymium (Nd), dysprosium (Dy), tellurium (Te), fiberglass, and solar-grade polysilicon may need to grow considerably. Cumulative CO2 emissions related to materials for electricity infrastructure may be substantial (4-29 Gt CO2eq in 1.5°C scenarios) but constitute a small share of global carbon budgets (1-9% of a 320 Gt CO2eq 1.5°C 66% avoidance budget). Our results highlight how power sector decarbonization will mobilize large quantities of materials, likely necessitating continued development of existing and new mineral resources.