Decoding stress patterns of the 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake doublet

Abstract

Abstract Earthquake interaction across multiple time scales can reveal complex stress evolution and rupture patterns. Here, we investigate the stress change's role in the 2023 Mw 7.8 and 7.6 earthquake doublet along the Eastern Anatolian Fault (EAF), using simulations of 21 historical earthquakes (M ≥ 6.1) from 1822 to 2023. Focusing on six cascading sub-events during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Sequence, we reveal how one sub-event's stress alteration can impact the emergence and rupture dynamics of subsequent sub-events. Our analysis unveils that the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake was deferred by 52 years due to stress shadow effects from historical events, while the 2023 Mw 7.6 earthquake was accelerated by 26 years as a result of stress increases from historical events and ultimately triggered by the 2023 Mw 7.8 earthquake. This study underscores the importance of grasping earthquake preparation, rupture initiation, and propagation in the context of intricate fault systems worldwide. Based on these results, we draw attention to heightened seismic hazards in the Elazig-Bingol seismic gap of the EAF and the northern section of the Dead Sea Fault, necessitating increased monitoring and preparedness efforts.