Affiliation:
1. University of Naples Federico II
2. University of Genoa
3. Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Abstract
Abstract
How, when and where large earthquakes are generated remain fundamental unsolved scientific questions.Here, we demonstrate that intercepting when a fault system starts deviating from its steady behavior by monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution and dynamic source properties of micro-to-small earthquakescan have high potential as tool for identifying the preparatory phase of large earthquakes.
We re-analyzed the seismic activity that preceded the Mw 6.3 earthquake that hit L’Aquila on 6 April 2009 in central Italy. We show that the seismic catalog information can be transformed into features allowing us to track in a statistical framework the evolution of seismicity. Features associated to foreshocks show different patterns from the background seismicity that occurred in the previous years. While foreshocks share similar clustering properties of previous seismic sequences not culminating in large earthquakes, we show that their ensemble allows to clearly capture the activation phase of the main event.
Publisher
Research Square Platform LLC
Cited by
1 articles.
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