Habituation to threats in times of crisis: Lessons from the temporal trajectory of risk perceptions throughout COVID-19

Abstract

Abstract From wars to epidemics to economic recessions, societies worldwide are subject to extended periods of crisis. Perceptions of crisis-related risks are crucial for how people respond to communications about ongoing threats, protective behaviors, and crisis-management policies. However, people’s perceptions often do not accurately reflect the reality around them. The authors test a habituation-to-threat pattern that can produce a mismatch between risk perceptions and actual threats over the course of sustained crises: initially, people feel highly at risk despite low levels of objective threat; as crises persist, perceived risks decline even in the face of increasing objective threat levels. Consistent with this pattern, participants in a nationwide American survey conducted bi-weekly for more than a year during the COVID-19 pandemic initially estimated high probabilities that they could contract the virus, be hospitalized, and even die. However, as the number of people affected by COVID-19 increased, these risk perceptions declined instead.