An Aging Giant At The Center of Global Warming: Population Dynamics and Its Effect on CO2 Emissions in China

Abstract

Abstract Managing the aging crisis and mitigating CO2 emissions are currently two great challenges faced by China. Revealing the complex correlation between aging and CO2, and projecting their future dynamics are fundamentally necessary to inform effective strategies and policies toward a low-carbon and sustainable development in China. In this paper, we quantitatively investigated the impacts of population aging, economy, and energy intensity on CO2 emissions through a STIRPAT model based on balanced provincial panel data from 1995-2019, and employed a cohort model and scenario analysis to project the demographic change and CO2 emissions till 2050. It is found that CO2 emissions in China has witnessed a significant growth during 1995-2019, and will exhibit an inverted U-shaped growth till 2050 with its peak appears between 2030-2040. Every 1% increase of aging will exert a 0.69% emission of CO2 in China. However, a big regional difference was also detected as aging contributed to CO2 reduction in the eastern region, but stimulated CO2 emissions in the central and western regions. Policy implications for achieving a low-carbon and aging-oriented sustainable development include the integration of aging into the decision-making of industrial structure upgrading and CO2 emission reduction in both national and region levels, the promotion of the further transition to low-carbon consumption and green products in the eastern region, and strengthening the deep fusion of aging-oriented industries with local resource and environmental endowment in the central and western regions such as the development of eco-agriculture and green pension industries.