An investigation of the agriculture vulnerability and risk from climate change in Liberia: an institutional-socio-economic-technological-system framework approach.

Abstract

Abstract Climate change presents unprecedented challenges to the agricultural sector particularly in Africa where adaptive capacity and sensitivity are extremely low and high. Adequately addressing climate change risks and impacts in the agricultural sector through mainstreaming in the national development planning process is critical. Therefore, to plan and mainstream climate change into development planning processes, gaining an in-depth characterization of the agricultural sector’s vulnerability to climate change is needed. To this end, we proposed an institutional, social, earth, economic and technical (ISEETS) framework based on the systems approach. Due to limited data, we constructed climate scenarios to present the earth subsector of the ISEETS and provided both theoretical and analytical analyses of the climate change impact on the agricultural sector. Based on the RCP4.5, the results showed that temperature would increase by a range of 1 to 1.25 oC. In terms of precipitation, it would increase by a range of 0.36–1.13%. Analysis of extreme events for precipitation indicated that the country would experience an increase in extreme precipitation of 3–14%, suggesting increased flooding in the country. From the ISEETS perceptive, the sector vulnerability could be amplified by the weak institutional, social, economic, earth, and technology subsectors. The study provided information that could help strengthen all aspects of the ISEETS to reduce vulnerability to climate change.