On the role of natural multidecadal oscillations on global warming and its hiatus

Abstract

Abstract In this study, we investigate the role of the multidecadal oscillation patterns in the global temperature in the global warming hiatus. We analyze the global instrumental temperature records and multiple tree-ring temperature reconstruction records using wavelet transforms and register the presence of a multidecadal cycle of approximately 55-75 years. The hiatus and post-hiatus rise in temperature arises from the declining phase of the multidecadal oscillation which temporally compensates the rising phase. The unusual rise in the temperature after the hiatus is possibly explained by the positive uprising phase of this natural cycle. The origin of the global warming debate has been partly ascribed to faulty calculations or biased judgments. However, in these studies, little emphasis has been given to the possible presence of multidecadal oscillation patterns in the global temperature, which may lead to such an effect. Our result demonstrates that, phase of this cycle has accidentally played an important role in fueling the global warming debate. Therefore, while assessing any future climate changes, such possibilities should be accounted.