Joinpoint Regression Analysis of Recent Trends In Desmoplastic Malignant Melanoma Incidence And Mortality: 15-Year Multicentre Retrospective Study

Abstract

Abstract Background Desmoplastic Malignant Melanoma (DMM) detection and mortality rates have significantly increased in recent years.There are currently no comprehensive epidemiological investigations of DMM incidence and mortality trends.This study aims to explain changes in DMM incidence and mortality during a 15-year term (2005–2019). Methods Data on DMM patients was sourced from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Both incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were directly extracted from the SEER database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze and calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). Results Between 2005 and 2019, 3,384 DMM cases were identified, boasting an age-adjusted incidence rate of 3.63% (95% CI: 3.51–3.76) and an incidence-based mortality rate of 1.65% (95% CI: 1.57–1.74). Of these, 2,353 were males (69.53%) and 1,031 were females (30.47%). There were 1894 patients (55.97%) who were over 70 years old. Predominantly, DMM lesions manifested in exposed areas: Limbs (955, 28.22%), Face (906, 26.77%), and Scalp and Neck (865, 25.56%). The incidence of DMM increased significantly at a rate of APC = 0.9% during 2005–2019, while the incidence-based mortality showed a significant upward trend (APC = 7%) during 2005–2012, and slowly increasing trend (APC = 0.6%) during 2012–2019. In contrast to the modest upward trajectory in female incidence and mortality, male incidence initially surged, later declining, while male mortality peaked and stabilized post-2012. The primary sites for incidence and mortality were consistently exposed areas: Face, Scalp and Neck, and Limbs. Conclusions In recent years, the incidence and incidence-based mortality of DMM have significantly increased. Each subgroup analysis has different trends, and these trends can provide better support for our exploration of DMM.