Unveiling the link between changing weather patterns and apple output in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

This paper includes the change in area, production and productivity of Apple crop in Shimla District of Himachal Pradesh. The goal of this paper was to look at the performance of apple crop in the study area over the last four decades to see if there had been any apparent change. There was a considerable increase in the area under apple crop from 13558.67 ha during the first period to 26114.4 ha during the last decade. The change in area over the years has been increased by 51.9%. There has been an increasing trend in the area from last thirty six years. This paper would aid in identifying the fundamental causes of such performance, allowing a broad assessment of future output potential. Further, it develops a correlation matrix between average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average rainfall and average productivity of apple within the chosen time period. Based on the correlation it can be concluded that warmer temperatures may increase crop production. But, unusually high lowest temperatures may exceed a threshold. The relationship between climatic conditions and productivity has been highlighted by the fact that heavy precipitation corresponds with decreased yield, whereas average rainfall and lowest temperatures show very weak positive relationships.