Trend analysis and prediction of the incidence and mortality of CKD in China and the US

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Currently, limited research is available on the comparative analysis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence and mortality rates between China and the United States. This study aimed to explore the trends in CKD incidence and mortality rates in both countries, as well as make some future predictions. Methods A Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze temporal trends in CKD incidence and mortality. An age-period-cohort model was used to assess the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on CKD risk and forecast the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CKD in China and the US over the next 15 years. Results CKD incidence in China and the US showed an upward trend. Its mortality rate showed a downward trend in China but an upward one in the US. The relative risk (RR) of CKD incidence and mortality increased with age, although individuals aged 0–5 years had a higher RR of CKD incidence. Over time, the RR of CKD incidence has gradually increased in China and the US. Individuals born in later birth cohorts had a lower RR of CKD incidence and mortality. The ASIR of CKD may increase in both China and the US, whereas its ASMR may decline over the next 15 years. Conclusion Screening measures should be strengthened among populations at high risk of CKD; prenatal examinations of pregnant women should be emphasized to reduce CKD incidence in newborns. It is imperative to increase health education and encourage individuals to adopt healthy lifestyles.