Disease Dynamics in a Changing Climate: Impact of Urbanization and Temperature Variability on Infectious Diseases in Coimbatore

Abstract

Abstract Climate change, which encompasses variations in rainfall and temperature patterns, coupled with changes in land use/land cover (LULC), significantly impacts both the environment and society. These two factors, climate change and LULC shifts, have markedly affected human health, both directly and indirectly. Monitoring regional climate patterns, LULC changes, and disease outbreaks is crucial to ensure healthy living standards through a sustainable environment. This study investigates the correlation between climate change, LULC change, and the prevalence of infectious diseases transmitted by vectors and waterborne pathogens in Coimbatore district, Tamil Nadu, India, from 1985 to 2015. The study used Landsat-4, Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 data to generate LULC maps of the study area. The maximum likelihood algorithm facilitated the creation of these maps and detected changes for the years 1985, 2000, 2009, and 2015. Rainfall and temperature data for the study area were sourced from APHRODITE's Water Resources, and statistical analysis was applied to analyse these time series data. Infectious disease data was obtained from the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP), the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP), and the National Health System Resource Centre. These data were examined to identify trends in the occurrence of infectious diseases. The key findings of the study include (1) an overall increase in temperature and minor variations in rainfall in the study area during the study period; (2) an evident increase in built-up areas, as depicted by the LULC maps, attributable to industrialisation and population growth; (3) an emergence of dengue during the study period. The increasing patterns of vector-borne and water-borne diseases could be associated with changes in LULC and climate change. Given that the relationship between infectious diseases and their links to climate change and LULC changes has not been extensively researched in the Indian context, this study intends to contribute to a deeper understanding and delineation of future strategies in Coimbatore, India.