Development of a Composite Drought Indicator for operational drought monitoring in the MENA region

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents the Composite Drought Indicator (CDI) that Jordanian, Lebanese, Moroccan, and Tunisian governments now produce monthly, and it describes their iterative co-development processes. The CDI is primarily intended to monitor agricultural and ecological drought on a seasonal time scale. It uses remote sensing and modelled data inputs, and it reflects anomalies in precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. We made changes to CDI input data, modelling procedures, and integration following quantitative and qualitative validation assessments, as well as consideration of policymakers’ needs and agencies’ technical and institutional capabilities and constraints. We summarize validation results and show CDI outputs, and we describe the monthly CDI production and information dissemination process. Finally, we synthesize procedural and technical aspects of CDI development that reflect trade-offs made to optimize the CDI for operational monitoring that supports policy decision-making – including aspects of salience, credibility, and legitimacy – within each national context.